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Market Research: Lianhua plastics may continue to operate at a high level.

I. Market Review

in the month from May 25 to June 25, Dalian LLDPE futures market has gone out of a wave of rising first and then declining, which is mainly driven by the strong trend of the upstream international crude oil market, The strong ex factory price of petrochemicals and the shutdown caused by the failure of some petrochemical plants, such as Maoming ethylene plant, directly pushed up the spot market price of LLDPE. In addition, the suspension settlement of Sinopec near the end of the month provided a basis for speculators to significantly bullish the futures price of Lian plastic, resulting in Lian plastic futures rising to the highest level here at 16780. After the crude oil price hit a record high frequently, it stagnated, and within a half month of sideways trading, LLDPE, as a bullish factor in the downstream industrial chain of crude oil, has gradually been eliminated. With the resumption of production of Maoming unit, the resistance of spot downstream factories to the current high price level is obvious, resulting in a lack of downstream demand for LLDPE, continued light transactions, and traders' difficulties in shipping. Although there are few sources of goods in the market, in view of the fact that the market dare not hype too much, and the national development and Reform Commission announced on June 19 that the price of gasoline and diesel will be increased by 1000 yuan per ton and the price of aviation kerosene will be increased by 1500 yuan per ton from June 20, 2008, investors are generally worried that the rise in the price of refined oil has made up for some losses of petrochemical enterprises before, which has dragged down the sharp decline of even plastics after the sharp rise. As of June 25, the main contract l080 was opened at 14500 points in September, with a maximum of 16780 points and a minimum of 14485 points, and closed at 14980 points, up 545 points from the previous month, with 10306 positions, and the trading range was significantly higher than that of the previous month

the trading situation of l0809, the main contract of plastics in June 2008 (May 25 - June 25) unit: yuan/ton, 5 tons per hand



opening price

highest price

lowest price


rise and fall

position (hand)

position increase (hand)

transaction (hand)





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5 on the 25th of the month, the K-line chart of the main contract day of l0809 with plastic

the K-line chart of the main contract day of l0809 with plastic. (source: Beijing mid-term)

II. The main factors affecting the trend of LLDPE futures

(I) upstream raw materials

(1) crude oil

in the month from May 26 to June 25, the international crude oil futures market first suppressed and then rose, frequently hitting new highs. Under the pressure of two bad topics, the reduction in demand and the thorough investigation of speculation by the U.S. futures regulators, the WTI price fell to around $122. However, the short-term decline of the international crude oil market can not hide the lack of bad topics. The U.S. crude oil inventory has always declined in June, the supply situation is becoming increasingly severe, the geopolitical crisis in Nigeria, the European Central Bank's interest rate hike caused the U.S. dollar index to leak for a time, and the Jeddah summit came back in vain. The oil market, stimulated by the double factors of speculation and tight supply and demand, rebounded more than $16 for two consecutive times. On June 6, In July, the settlement price of crude oil futures in New York soared by $10.75 to $138.54 a barrel. Later, after the G8 summit of the eurozone, the French finance minister said that the Central Bank of the eurozone might change its view on interest rates. In addition, Ireland voted against the adoption of the Lisbon treaty. European political integration was blocked, weakening the expectation of interest rate hikes in the euro. In addition, the US dollar interest rate cut cycle came to an end due to inflationary pressure, and the market carried out a round of revaluation of the US dollar. The driving force of the depreciation of the US dollar on the rise of crude oil has weakened, causing the crude oil market to enter a sideways stage, showing a pattern of high consolidation in recent two weeks. As of June 25, the crude oil in August in New York hit the highest point of the day at $137.56, and the settlement price fell by $2.45 to $134.55 a barrel. The trading range of the day was 131 58 dollars

comparison chart of the closing conditions of US crude oil, London crude oil and lianplastic from May 26 to June 25

comparison chart of the closing conditions of US crude oil, London crude oil and lianplastic. (source: Beijing metaphase)

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