The hottest market rebounded, and the paper indust

Market rebound? On December 12, when another wave of shopping Carnival driven by Taobao jd.com came, the paper market welcomed another wave of paper mill price increase letters. Although the momentum is huge, the price increase letter at this moment is extremely embarrassing. The market has mixed opinions on this feedback. At present, domestic demand is insufficient and external demand is weakening, and the actual transaction price in the market is falling step by step. The good intentions of the paper mill to do so on the market, otherwise it should hang the ring on the key blade to boost it are clear. However, it is really hard to say whether this price rise is due to the reduction of the pressure on paper mills' inventory and the rise of raw material prices, or whether it is due to the strong pull back of the public opinion of the early shutdown and production reduction to call back market sentiment

since the three giants of nine dragons, Shanying and Rongcheng collectively raised the paper price at the end of November, nearly 30 price increase letters have been sent, involving corrugated paper, white board paper and bobbin paper, affecting 10 provinces of Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Hebei, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hubei, Jilin and Anhui. Increase/ton 23 new paper mills issued price increase letters, obviously the manufacturer's mentality of protecting the plate is still very strong

since the second half of this year, the market has been in a continuous downturn, and the negative impact of the Sino US trade war on paper consumption has gradually been reflected. Pulp futures, which had been brewing for six years, fell sharply after the opening, and the domestic and foreign markets were obviously declining. However, this wave of price increases has made the already cold market a little delicate. In recent years, the frequency of fluctuations in the paper market has accelerated and increased. Will the market continue to be bad? Or has it reached the bottom? Or is there a rebound signal? Especially for many paper traders and printing and packaging enterprises, should we take advantage of the situation to reduce the stock or prepare to copy the bottom

some senior celebrities also appeared to share their views and wonderful comments. Here are some wonderful views to share with you

-------- since June this year, I have been serving as a consultant for some paper friends. I suggest they start selling goods in August. The main reason is that the month of 6789 is the last time for everyone to rush their goods to the United States for export. Unfortunately, many friends replenished their inventory in September. Their reason is that every year, the fourth quarter is the peak season

------ then how should we judge the quality of the fixture? There are mainly the following three points: - from the current external environment, the overall international and domestic economic situation is not very optimistic. The United States has not reached a clear conclusion on China's tariff collection, and other major foreign markets are not very happy to further summarize and exchange the innovative scientific and technological achievements and utilization of achievements in the field of non-ferrous materials in recent years. The export price of each factory has been at a low level. Are unwilling to export in large quantities. Until recently this month, export and domestic prices began to approach gradually. I believe there will be a certain improvement

-------- this round of decline is led by white card, followed by copper plate, double glue and copying. The decline was large and fast. It fell by 1000 yuan in almost two months, and basically the main varieties did not escape. It shows that this is an overall decline, which is consistent with the economic situation. At the beginning, a friend asked me where the paper price would stop and when the pulp would fall? At that time, my advice to them was to observe the inventory of the paper mill. If you don't know the inventory, it depends on when the paper mill sends a shutdown notice. In case of abnormal downtime, there are only two reasons, either the inventory is too high or it is below the cost line. By December, the two conditions for further deepening enterprise ground cooperation are basically met

------ the general situation of the domestic economy, the economy was poor in the fourth quarter, resulting in sluggish demand. Paper mills are unprofitable, inventories are rising, and there is only one way to shut down. Unless the price of pulp falls. At present, several major factories are stopping in rotation. Even so, inventories are still rising. Because everyone is unwilling to purchase, the price of 1000 yuan in the warehouse has not found a direction, and the manufacturer has no clear compensation plan. I think this is the main thing to do this month. Take the double offset paper factory as an example. Each factory of double offset paper goes hand in hand, and there is no main pulp factory. The cost of paper mills is close to the limit. If there is a decline of $100 pulp, it will reach the bottom in January, but I personally think this bottom is a phased bottom. If Sino US relations do not improve significantly, the rebound is the best time to ship. It is possible to double bottom and return to the state of 14 or 15 years

------ whether your company has a large number of people or a small number of people, just keep your key customers. For non key customers, let's go left and right. Never stock up for customers who may need it. Because it may fall every month. Unless you lock the price with downstream customers, you will lose money if you take it. It is painful to lose some customers, but it is always better to lose money and earn money

------ even if there is a major breakthrough in China US relations, I think it will be difficult to slow down without half a year. Let's get ready for the winter